{
  "generated_at": "2026-11-03T00:49:59.653Z",
  "page": "https://timepointai.com/track-record",
  "sealed": 15,
  "open": 11,
  "settled": 4,
  "void": 0,
  "hits": 3,
  "misses": 1,
  "hit_rate": 0.75,
  "brier": 0.27945000000000003,
  "small_sample": true,
  "note": "Simulated forecasts; probabilities are not calibrated. hit_rate = hits / (hits + misses). brier = mean (probability - outcome)^2 over settled seals, Yes = 1.",
  "seals": [
    {
      "id": "seal_5aa9653aa0e1",
      "url": "https://timepointai.com/seal/seal_5aa9653aa0e1",
      "question": "Bank of England November 2026: does the MPC change Bank Rate on Nov 5?",
      "probability": 0.38,
      "status": "open",
      "sealed_at": "2026-10-19T19:37:49Z",
      "window_end": "2026-11-05",
      "settled": null,
      "outcome": null,
      "outcome_text": null,
      "source_url": null
    },
    {
      "id": "seal_424b8bfac33d",
      "url": "https://timepointai.com/seal/seal_424b8bfac33d",
      "question": "OPEC+ ministerial meeting, late 2026: does the group announce a change to agreed production levels for Q1 2027?",
      "probability": 0.4,
      "status": "open",
      "sealed_at": "2026-10-19T19:38:01Z",
      "window_end": "2026-11-30",
      "settled": null,
      "outcome": null,
      "outcome_text": null,
      "source_url": null
    },
    {
      "id": "seal_b65d361dea1f",
      "url": "https://timepointai.com/seal/seal_b65d361dea1f",
      "question": "Starship: does SpaceX launch a Starship test flight from Starbase, Texas, after this seal and on or before 2026-11-30?",
      "probability": 0.72,
      "status": "open",
      "sealed_at": "2026-10-21T21:16:59Z",
      "window_end": "2026-11-30",
      "settled": null,
      "outcome": null,
      "outcome_text": null,
      "source_url": null
    },
    {
      "id": "seal_7ef030224321",
      "url": "https://timepointai.com/seal/seal_7ef030224321",
      "question": "NVIDIA fiscal Q3 2027: does NVIDIA's earnings release for the quarter, published on or before 2026-11-30, report total revenue above $110.16 billion, the top of its own guidance of $108.0 billion plus or minus 2%?",
      "probability": 0.42,
      "status": "open",
      "sealed_at": "2026-10-21T21:17:02Z",
      "window_end": "2026-11-30",
      "settled": null,
      "outcome": null,
      "outcome_text": null,
      "source_url": null
    },
    {
      "id": "seal_28048cd557ea",
      "url": "https://timepointai.com/seal/seal_28048cd557ea",
      "question": "OpenAI funding: does OpenAI announce a single funding round of $10 billion or more, after this seal and on or before 2026-11-30, confirmed by the company or an SEC Form D?",
      "probability": 0.35,
      "status": "open",
      "sealed_at": "2026-10-21T21:17:05Z",
      "window_end": "2026-11-30",
      "settled": null,
      "outcome": null,
      "outcome_text": null,
      "source_url": null
    },
    {
      "id": "seal_aa6ca9460fdd",
      "url": "https://timepointai.com/seal/seal_aa6ca9460fdd",
      "question": "Anthropic IPO: does Anthropic price its initial public offering, as announced by the company or recorded in a final prospectus on SEC EDGAR, after this seal and on or before 2026-11-30?",
      "probability": 0.35,
      "status": "open",
      "sealed_at": "2026-10-21T21:18:16Z",
      "window_end": "2026-11-30",
      "settled": null,
      "outcome": null,
      "outcome_text": null,
      "source_url": null
    },
    {
      "id": "seal_680fdf589639",
      "url": "https://timepointai.com/seal/seal_680fdf589639",
      "question": "November landfall: does a named tropical storm or hurricane make landfall on the contiguous United States during November 2026, on or before 2026-11-30, as recorded by the National Hurricane Center?",
      "probability": 0.15,
      "status": "open",
      "sealed_at": "2026-10-21T21:18:19Z",
      "window_end": "2026-11-30",
      "settled": null,
      "outcome": null,
      "outcome_text": null,
      "source_url": null
    },
    {
      "id": "seal_be761ad37f54",
      "url": "https://timepointai.com/seal/seal_be761ad37f54",
      "question": "FOMC December 2026: does the FOMC lower the federal funds target range at its Dec 8-9 meeting?",
      "probability": 0.4,
      "status": "open",
      "sealed_at": "2026-10-19T19:37:45Z",
      "window_end": "2026-12-09",
      "settled": null,
      "outcome": null,
      "outcome_text": null,
      "source_url": null
    },
    {
      "id": "seal_fdc3c18298ce",
      "url": "https://timepointai.com/seal/seal_fdc3c18298ce",
      "question": "US midterms 2026: do Republicans hold a majority of US House seats once every race is called?",
      "probability": 0.48,
      "status": "open",
      "sealed_at": "2026-10-19T19:37:53Z",
      "window_end": "2027-01-03",
      "settled": null,
      "outcome": null,
      "outcome_text": null,
      "source_url": null
    },
    {
      "id": "seal_d73574209812",
      "url": "https://timepointai.com/seal/seal_d73574209812",
      "question": "US midterms 2026: do Republicans hold a Senate majority (51 or more seats, or 50 plus the Vice President) once every race is called?",
      "probability": 0.73,
      "status": "open",
      "sealed_at": "2026-10-19T19:37:55Z",
      "window_end": "2027-01-03",
      "settled": null,
      "outcome": null,
      "outcome_text": null,
      "source_url": null
    },
    {
      "id": "seal_bc532d45d330",
      "url": "https://timepointai.com/seal/seal_bc532d45d330",
      "question": "US Supreme Court OT2026: does the Court release at least one signed opinion in an argued case by Jan 14, 2027?",
      "probability": 0.35,
      "status": "open",
      "sealed_at": "2026-10-19T19:37:57Z",
      "window_end": "2027-01-14",
      "settled": null,
      "outcome": null,
      "outcome_text": null,
      "source_url": null
    },
    {
      "id": "seal_292b14007f0b",
      "url": "https://timepointai.com/seal/seal_292b14007f0b",
      "question": "Bank of Japan October 2026: does the Policy Board raise the policy rate at its Oct 29-30 meeting (decision Oct 30)?",
      "probability": 0.43,
      "status": "hit",
      "sealed_at": "2026-10-19T19:37:51Z",
      "window_end": "2026-10-30",
      "settled": "2026-10-30",
      "outcome": "no",
      "outcome_text": "No: the Bank of Japan kept its policy rate at around 1.25 percent (Statement on Monetary Policy, Oct 30, 2026).",
      "source_url": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k261030a.pdf"
    },
    {
      "id": "seal_367520b845e6",
      "url": "https://timepointai.com/seal/seal_367520b845e6",
      "question": "ECB October 2026: does the Governing Council change the deposit facility rate on Oct 29?",
      "probability": 0.48,
      "status": "hit",
      "sealed_at": "2026-10-19T19:37:47Z",
      "window_end": "2026-10-29",
      "settled": "2026-10-29",
      "outcome": "no",
      "outcome_text": "No: the ECB Governing Council kept the deposit facility rate at 2.50 percent (ECB press release, Oct 29, 2026).",
      "source_url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp261029~9a493adf17.en.html"
    },
    {
      "id": "seal_cbb18f3771ec",
      "url": "https://timepointai.com/seal/seal_cbb18f3771ec",
      "question": "UN General Assembly 2026: does the annual resolution on ending the US embargo against Cuba receive more votes in favour than in 2025 (165)?",
      "probability": 0.8,
      "status": "miss",
      "sealed_at": "2026-10-19T19:37:59Z",
      "window_end": "2026-11-30",
      "settled": "2026-10-28",
      "outcome": "no",
      "outcome_text": "No: the General Assembly's recorded vote on the Cuba embargo resolution was 130 in favour to 17 against, with 25 abstentions, not above 2025's 165 (UN press release GA/12801, Oct 28, 2026).",
      "source_url": "https://press.un.org/en/2026/ga12801.doc.htm"
    },
    {
      "id": "seal_4d9bbdb9f959",
      "url": "https://timepointai.com/seal/seal_4d9bbdb9f959",
      "question": "FOMC October 2026: does the FOMC change the federal funds target range at its Oct 27-28 meeting?",
      "probability": 0.25,
      "status": "hit",
      "sealed_at": "2026-10-19T19:37:43Z",
      "window_end": "2026-10-28",
      "settled": "2026-10-28",
      "outcome": "no",
      "outcome_text": "No: the FOMC held the federal funds target range at 3-3/4 to 4 percent (Federal Reserve statement, Oct 28, 2026).",
      "source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm"
    }
  ]
}