Does the MPC change Bank Rate on Nov 5?

The Bank of England decides on Nov 5. Our simulation puts the chance of a change at 38%. Sealed in public before the answer is known.

Bank of England · simulated forecast

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Today’s challenge · Nov 5 UTCHawaii's vacation rentals: can you win five votes?Play today’s challenge · first turn free

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Play the committee yourself
Play: Bank of England, Nov 5: raise rates or hold?You chair the Bank of England's rate vote. Land one decision, three or fewer against, and agreed guidance.
Play: Can you keep a UN peacekeeping mission alive?You draft the UN renewal of the Central African Republic mission. Pass it with no veto.
See the forecast: Does OPEC+ change Q1 2027 production levels?Simulated 40% · settles Nov 30
Play: Nvidia reports Nov 17: sell some, or hold?You are a pension fund's investment chief. Win trustee approval for one written plan on the Nvidia holding.
See the forecast: Does SpaceX fly a Starship test by Nov 30?Simulated 72% · settles Nov 30
Play: Climate summit: can you get a deal everyone accepts?You hold the pen at the climate summit in Türkiye. Win all four blocs over to one final text.
See the forecast: Does NVIDIA report revenue above $110.16B?Simulated 42% · settles Nov 30
Play: Baseball: can you stop a lockout before 1 December?You are the federal mediator. Get owners and players to sign a framework that keeps talks going past 1 Dec.
See the forecast: Does OpenAI announce a funding round of $10B+?Simulated 35% · settles Nov 30
Play: The Fed in December: raise interest rates or hold?You chair the Fed's rate committee. Win one December decision and one line of guidance, one dissent at most.
See the forecast: Does Anthropic price its IPO by Nov 30?Simulated 35% · settles Nov 30
Play: Colorado River cuts: can three states make one offer?You convene Nevada, Arizona and California. Agree one joint offer on water cuts and the lawsuit.
See the forecast: Does a named storm make US landfall in November?Simulated 15% · settles Nov 30
Play: Can you stop a US government shutdown by 11 Dec?You lead the majority's talks. Get four key players to back one funding bill, with a total and an end date.
Play: Recalled antibiotic: can you keep the wards stocked?You chair the hospital board at dawn. Get all four to sign a supplier plan: stock floor, cost cap, audit.
Play: Offer at a third of your value: sell or fight on?You are the CEO of a software company with 14 months of cash. Win the board's vote to cut costs, not sell.
Play: Oil ministers meet: can you get a deal signed tonight?You chair the oil producers' meeting. Win a signed output plan for early 2027 from 70% of the table.
Play: Bike lane vs shop parking: can you win the vote?You chair the council item. Pass a six-month Fenwick Street bike-lane trial with a cost cap and review date.
Play: Two founders, one company: can you split it fairly?You chair as independent board chair. Get a signed split of price, vesting and board seats from all four.
From history
Play: Emancipation, 1862: can you convince Lincoln to act now?You are Lincoln's Treasury Secretary. Win the Cabinet over to issue the proclamation this summer.
Play: Cuban Missile Crisis: can you stop the air strike?You are Kennedy's Special Counsel. Win the room over to a deal, not a Monday air strike.
Play: Cuban Missile Crisis: stop a Soviet ship, no shots?You command a destroyer facing a Soviet freighter. Get your officers to stop and board it with no shot fired.
Read the moment: Five days in May: fight on, or ask Mussolini for termsSimulated moment · Oct 29, 2026
Read the moment: Black Saturday: the ExComm decides between a strike and a tradeSimulated moment · Oct 29, 2026