From the deal room

Field Notes on Deal Risk

A decision-maker's notebook on the part of the deal you can't see from the pitch — who allies, who blocks, which path actually closes, and how to score each branch before you commit the capital.

The Deal-Risk Whitepaper

A field guide to stress-testing an M&A or investment decision across every branch — confidence-scored, source-traced, before a dollar moves. Free, no sales call required.

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The term sheet that survives the room

Two competing term sheets look identical on paper. They are not identical once the partners are in the room. How to model investor coalitions — who co-leads, who blocks, who quietly walks — and read the confidence score on each path before you counter.

Coming soon · stress-test this scenario →

Pricing the integration, not the pitch

Most acquisitions are priced on the synergy story and re-priced — painfully — during integration. How to simulate the integration meeting first: who champions, who torpedoes, where trust erodes, and what that does to your model.

Coming soon · run an acquisition sim →

Reasoning backward from the exit

You know the exit you want. PORTAL mode reasons backward from it — which decisions today make that exit the most probable branch, and which quietly foreclose it. A backward-causal read of the hold period before you sign the LOI.

Coming soon · model a hold period →

Bring the committee a branch map, not a gut call

An investment committee debates the storyteller when there's no evidence on the table. A confidence-scored, source-traced branch map changes the room: the committee argues the evidence, not the narrator. How to build one into the memo.

Coming soon · prep an IC memo →

Corp DevVenture

Confidence scores are not predictions

A 0.82 on a branch is not a promise it happens — it's a calibrated read of how the modeled dynamics resolve given everything known about the people in the room. How to use the score the right way, and where it stops being useful.

Coming soon · read a sample report →

For builders

Hello, World. We're Timepoint.

The engine behind the deal-risk modeling: Flash renders the past, Pro simulates the future, and the Clockchain stores causal intelligence in a persistent graph. Open source, Apache 2.0. Here's what we've shipped and where we're going.