Track record
Every forecast we sealed, and how it resolved
Each forecast is sealed with a public timestamp before its outcome is known, so it cannot be edited afterwards. When the outcome is published, we settle it here, hit or miss.
- Sealed
- 15
- Settled
- 4
- Hits
- 3
- Misses
- 1
- Hit rate
- 75%
- Brier score
- 0.279
Only 4 settled so far: n too small to mean much.
How to read this
Each seal states one probability: the chance the answer to its question is Yes. A HIT means the side we gave more than 50% is what happened; a MISS means it was not. The Brier score is the average of (probability − outcome)², with Yes counted as 1 and No as 0, over the settled seals. 0 is perfect; always saying 50% scores 0.25; lower is better.
These are simulations, and their probabilities are not calibrated. A handful of settled forecasts says little about calibration either way; this page is here so you can check every one.
Every seal
Open seals first, soonest to resolve; then settled, newest first. Times are UTC.
Data: /track-record.json
Get a weekly note when a new simulation opens
One short email, at most once a week, and only when there is a new simulation you can play.