Sealed forecasts · Forecast
Simulated forecast · sealed · pending
Starship: does SpaceX launch a Starship test flight from Starbase, Texas, after this seal and on or before 2026-11-30?
The question Starship: does SpaceX launch a Starship test flight from Starbase, Texas, after this seal and on or before 2026-11-30?
Simulated by Claude Sonnet 4.5, planned by Claude Haiku 5.5.
Resolves in 28 days
Window ends Nov 30, 2026
Why this is sealed
Before the outcome is known, we publish the forecast and record a fingerprint (hash) of its exact wording with public timestamp services. Afterward anyone can prove we said exactly this, on this date, and never edited it.
Receipt
- Forecast
- Starship: does SpaceX launch a Starship test flight from Starbase, Texas, after this seal and on or before 2026-11-30?
- Probability
- 72%
- Window ends
- Nov 30, 2026
- Sealed
- 2026-10-21T21:16:59Z
- Hash
sha256:b65d361dea1f9666db3386f7727301886577b76c5e756b0a0d3b926c1a46d40b- Timestamp calendars
- a.pool.opentimestamps.org, b.pool.opentimestamps.org
- Outcome
- Not settled yet
- Proofs
- proof 1 · proof 2
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