Persuade Lincoln to issue the proclamation now

Turn by turn

1. Turn 1 · seanm Mr. President, issue it now: a proclamation after a victory looks like pride, but issued today it makes the war a cause the Union cannot abandon.

   • Abraham Lincoln Ah, you put it like a man who has measured a fence from both sides. A cause the Union cannot abandon, you say. I have heard that a house divided is a fine sermon, but I want to know whether this proclamation holds the house up or only paints the walls. +5
   • William H. Seward Pride after a victory, yes, I grant the stage would be prettier. But you have not shown me why a paper issued in a losing summer escapes the charge of desperation. The audience in London will not be moved by good intentions alone. +4
   • Montgomery Blair Count the votes, Mr. Secretary, not the sentiments. You talk of causes and pride, but you say nothing of how the Congress is held in October. Until you do, I hear a speech, not a plan for the polls. +0

   Table after turn 1: 28%

2. Turn 2 · seanm Mr. Blair, the October vote turns on whether the North believes the war means something. Antietam gives us a victory to stand on; a proclamation issued from strength is policy, not desperation. Mr. Seward, London cannot recognize a Confederacy fighting to hold slaves once we declare it. Mr. President, issue it this summer.

   • Abraham Lincoln You speak of victory and policy as if they were one animal, Mr. Secretary. I still have not heard how this paper keeps Kentucky in the Union, nor by what authority I issue it. Bring me those, and I will listen longer. +0
   • William H. Seward Ah, now you give me a stage with a proper set. Antietam as the backdrop, and a proclamation that London cannot embrace without blushing. Still, I want more than a neat phrase before I call it policy. +25
   • Montgomery Blair Belief is a fine thing to campaign on, but men in the border counties vote on their neighbors and their sons. Tell me how a proclamation holds those seats in October, and I will count it. +16

   Table after turn 2: 39%

3. Turn 3 · seanm Mr. President, Kentucky first. Your own Constitution gives you the authority: as commander in chief you may take the labor that feeds the rebel armies, as a war measure, and no court can say the Union may not weaken its enemy. Mr. Blair, the border states keep their loyal owners' standing; this proclamation names only states in rebellion. Kentucky, Maryland, Missouri and Delaware are untouched.

   • Abraham Lincoln Now you have brought me a constitution and a map, which is more than the last speech did. Whether a court would agree, I cannot say yet. Whether Kentucky will believe the paper stops at its own border, I doubt. Go on. +24
   • William H. Seward You have given the President a legal argument and a map, Mr. Secretary, but London reads proclamations, not constitutions. Show me how the Confederacy's hopes of recognition die on the day this paper is signed, and I will applaud. +0
   • Montgomery Blair Names only rebel states, you say. Fine, but my border counties vote on their neighbors, and a paper that frightens a Kentucky farmer costs me his ballot whatever its wording. Count me the seats, not the clauses. +0

   Table after turn 3: 51%

4. Turn 4 · seanm Mr. Seward, Britain abolished slavery in 1833 and her workers march against it; once emancipation is the declared aim, Palmerston cannot send ships to defend slavery without losing the Lancashire mill hands and the public. Recognition dies the day we sign. Mr. Blair, the border states keep their seats because the proclamation spares them and we offer compensated emancipation there, which your Kentucky farmers can vote for.

   • Abraham Lincoln Compensation for loyal owners, you say, and a paper that spares Kentucky by name. That is a better rope than the last one. Yet a rope is only as strong as the hands holding it, and I have not yet seen Kentucky's hands. Go on. +0
   • William H. Seward Now the mill hands of Lancashire take the stage, and Palmerston is left in the wings with his ships. That is a scene I can admire. Keep the curtain up, and I may yet say the word policy without wincing. +12
   • Montgomery Blair Spares them, you say, and compensation to sweeten the pill. A farmer in Kentucky hears the word emancipation before he hears compensation, Mr. Secretary. Give me the count of seats he will still cast, and then we talk. +3

   Table after turn 4: 55%

5. Turn 5 · seanm Mr. Blair, the seats you fear are in Kentucky, Missouri and Maryland, and each state already has Union men in the legislature who asked for compensation, not for rebellion. Offer them a paid, gradual plan with colonization funds, and let each loyal congressman say he voted to end the war sooner. Mr. President, Kentucky's hands hold muskets for the Union; give them the plan and the ownership of the answer. Mr. Seward, sign it this summer, with Antietam still in the papers.

   • Abraham Lincoln A paid, gradual plan with colonization funds. Now you speak of a ledger, and a ledger I can read. Still, I want to hear from the loyal men themselves before I bind the Union to their hopes. Go on. +0
   • William H. Seward Antietam in the papers makes a pleasant picture, but you have not told me why a summer signing will not look like a drowning man's cry. Give me that answer and I will sit closer. +0
   • Montgomery Blair Loyal congressmen voting to end the war sooner, you say. That is a campaign line, Mr. Secretary. Name me the Kentucky and Maryland seats and the votes you can count on, and I will believe it. +5

   Table after turn 5: 56%

6. Turn 6 · seanm Mr. Seward, a drowning man waits for the tide; a government that signs after Richmond's guns have stopped looks to be pleading, but one that signs now looks like it has chosen its ground. Delay hands Lee the choice of moment and lets London recognize the Confederacy first. Mr. Blair, count them: the Kentucky ninth, Maryland's Baltimore district, and Missouri's St. Louis seat all have Union men who told me they will stand if emancipation is paid for. Mr. President, the loyal men are already writing to you; read them this week and sign.

   • Abraham Lincoln Letters from loyal men are a fine thing to hear read aloud, Mr. Secretary. Still, a soldier's phrase about chosen ground is not a law. Show me the authority under it before I put my name to anything. +0
   • William H. Seward Chosen ground, and Lee cast out of the moment. Now that is a scene with a third act, and I like it better. London's timing still worries me, but you have given me a stage to stand on. +12
   • Montgomery Blair Named seats at last, Mr. Secretary, and Union men who say they will stand if paid for. I will check those names against the poll books before I believe a single one of them. +3

   Table after turn 6: 60%

7. Turn 7 · seanm Mr. President, the authority is Article Two: you are commander in chief, and Congress has already passed the Confiscation Act this very month, so the law and the war power point the same way. Sign it as a military order, with a hundred days' notice so rebel states may return with their property intact. Mr. Blair, check the poll books tonight; I will send you the names of those Union men in Kentucky, Maryland and Missouri, and you will see they carry their counties by a margin the rebels cannot touch.

   • Abraham Lincoln Article Two, and a Confiscation Act passed this very month. Now the law and the war power walk the same road, which I have not heard said plainly before. A hundred days' notice I must weigh. Kentucky still troubles me. Go on. +0
   • William H. Seward Article Two and the Confiscation Act, Mr. Secretary, make a sound legal floor. Yet you have said nothing new about London or about how a summer signing escapes looking like a drowning man's cry. Give me that scene and I will listen. +0
   • Montgomery Blair Names, and counties carried by a margin, you promise. I will check the poll books tonight, Mr. Secretary, and if the margins hold I will say so. Until then a promise is only a promise. +0

   Table after turn 7: 60%

8. Turn 8 · seanm Mr. Seward, picture the scene in Parliament: the day our dispatch lands, Gladstone must rise and say Britain will recognize a nation built on bondage, and the Lancashire unions, the Quakers and the Times will answer him in the street. Recognition cannot survive that vote. Mr. President, Kentucky: hold the border states with a personal letter from you and a compensation bill in Congress before you sign, so they hear the offer first. Sign it now, as a war measure, and let history see you chose the ground.

   • Abraham Lincoln A personal letter to each border man and a bill in Congress before the signing, you say. That is a plan with hands in it. A war measure, you call it. I still want to see how the Union itself is saved by this paper before I sign. Go on. +2
   • William H. Seward Gladstone rising in Parliament, the Times and the Lancashire unions in the street. You have made the scene vivid, and that vote is a fear I cannot wave off. Show me why the dispatch will land at the right hour and I will sit closer. +0
   • Montgomery Blair A letter from the President and a bill before the signing, so Kentucky hears the offer first. Fine, but I heard no seats counted tonight, and no word on how the autumn ballot fares. Give me the votes again, and I will weigh them. +0

   Table after turn 8: 61%

Simulated people, played by a model. Each chip shows how far that person moved on the turn, in percentage points.